PART II: War Leadership: Vladimir Putin's Leadership in the Context of Russia's Bombing of Ukraine.

 In case you haven't followed recent media coverage, President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian army to invade, neighboring, Ukraine by bombing cities and killing thousands of civilians. Survivors migrated to other nearby countries, especially Poland. Critics noted that deliberately bombing cities violates the principles of Just War Theory, and that Putin is therefore a war criminal. Although Ukraine is not a member, the European Union has been sending humanitarian and military hardware aid to Ukraine. Recently, Volodomyr Zylenskyy, duly elected President of Ukraine, Zelenskyy traveled to the United States seeking more military hardware, especially aircraft and missiles, to help enforce a no-fly-zone over those land areas that the Russians have been using launch to bombers and missiles. In sum, Putin's invasion raises complex leadership puzzles for Joe Biden and the various leaders within the European Union. Should the European Union and/or the United State intervene militarily, if so, should that intervention include sending not only armaments, but also armed troops into Ukraine? Would that inspire Putin to use nuclear bombs? 

First of all, Leaders are judged based on three fundamental criteria: 1.) Does that leader inspire followers? 2.) What goals does that leader inspire followers to pursue? 3.) Are those goals good/bad, for whom? 4.) Is that leader effective and/or efficient at realizing those good/bad goals?  3.) Let's all agree that Vladimir Putin is a bad leader, because he deliberately targeted civilians, in violation of international law; and that he seems to have done so effectively. Let's postpone the question of whether the bombing is/was an efficient way to achieve his political goals. 

Russia's feeble economy is based on the export of oil and gas, and wheat to European countries. But European countries have come to rely on these commodities, and there are no other oil-producing or wheat-producing countries willing or able to fill the void. Thus, the political issues include the short-term question of whether or not political leaders in Europe ought to collectively boycott Russian oil, gas, and, wheat... even though it would inflict hardship on their own citizens? Do boycotts really work? If the EU decides to continue to import those products, they will be inadvertently helping finance Russia's bombing strategy, and perhaps help expand that invasion to other European countries? Over the long-run, if the EU decides to boycott Russian commodities, the followers of those respective leaders within the European countries, will suffer greatly, and the cost of oil and natural gas will skyrocket. How long will voters in the EU and the US tolerate this boycott? At what point will they vote those leaders out of power.  In sum, how much suffering must European and US citizens be willing to endure, in order to support the boycott (and hopefully) end the Russian bombing of Ukraine? How long will the Russian people and the military tolerate the high cost of Putin's  bombing campaign, and the death of many invading Russian soldiers? In general, how long can totalitarian leaders remain in power when they alienate military leaders, their own citizens at home, and the leaders of neighboring countries... for no good reason?  Let's call it the way it is... this bombing campaign was not only illegal and immoral, but also profoundly stupid... It cannot end well for Putin.